Regression to the Mean
If you do well, statistics show your next attempt will be worse. The opposite is true if you do poorly.
This is regression to the mean.
It is tempting to evaluate an outlier as a key indicator for future performance.
Your mind quickly creates a causal story that seemingly (and logically) explains the outlier.
It ignores the definition of an outlier: an exception to the mean.
This makes the notion of giving feedback (both good and bad) complicated.
After you give good feedback, chances are high that someone’s next performance will be worse.
After you give critical feedback, someone is likely to improve.
Your mind will make the causal story that your “tough but kind” feedback got through to them and turned things around.
It could simply be regression to the mean.
As a leader, increasing the data points and perspectives around performance is essential to helping you avoid jumping into action around an outlier.
Pumpkin spiced insights,
- Morning Cup