Planning Fallacy
You frequently leverage an incomplete mental heuristic.
The brain’s model around your ability to plan for the time most tasks will take to complete is, coincidentally, incomplete.
This is particularly true for mundane tasks like doing the dishes or walking down the block.
Despite how it might appear, you do not necessarily habitually underestimate.
The error occurs before that; you have an implicit and misplaced level of trust in your ability to plan and estimate.
This creates a planning fallacy: you continuously go through a cycle of planning, doing so incorrectly, and repeating the behaviour with no diminished confidence
Imagine continuously under-extracting your espresso, without ever knowing otherwise.
Then, add in an awareness of it that is never carried forward as learning the next time you make an espresso.
This is essentially what occurs when your brain falls into its planning fallacy.
Your confidence in your ability to estimate and plan is so high that you continually repeat the same errors.
As a leader, this loop is critical to identify within your team.
While self-regulation is challenging, creating external checks and accountabilities can be effective.
Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, I need more coffee,
- Morning Cup